Methodology

Every number ships with its reasoning.

Most “will AI take my job” content is a listicle recycling the same three reports. Pivot Index is a scored model — and we show our work, including the parts that could be wrong.

The two numbers that matter

Viability (0–100) asks: does this work still meaningfully exist for humans at the horizon? 100 means AI poses no structural threat; 0 means the work is fully automated. Workforce remaining asks the harsher question: even if the profession survives, how many humans does it still employ? Workforce is always less than or equal to viability, because productivity gains cut headcount long before they kill a profession.

A profession can be “safe” and still shrink by half. That gap — between the role surviving and your seat surviving — is exactly what the two lines on every trajectory chart show.

The 8-lens automation model

Every entity is assessed through eight independent lenses. A high score requires protection across several of them — one moat is a delay, not a defense.

Physical world

Does the work require hands, presence, and unstructured environments robots can't yet navigate?

Human trust

Do people insist on a human — therapy, bedside care, high-stakes advice?

Regulation

Do licenses, mandates, or legal frameworks require human practitioners?

Liability

When something goes wrong, must a human be accountable for the decision?

Data moats

Is the necessary training data private, messy, or simply nonexistent?

Economic cost

Is automating this actually cheaper than the human, at real-world scale?

Capability pace

How fast is frontier AI closing the specific skill gap this work depends on?

Social resistance

Will customers, unions, or politics slow adoption even where it's technically possible?

The scale

85–100VERY SAFEStructural protections AI cannot cheaply route around this decade.

70–84LIKELY SAFEDurable, but productivity tools will thin teams at the edges.

45–69UNCERTAINThe core tasks are automatable; the role survives by shrinking or shifting.

25–44AT RISKDisplacement is underway. Plan the pivot now, not later.

0–24CRITICALThe economics have already flipped. Exits outnumber entrances.

What we don’t claim

These are structured estimates, not prophecies. Scores are AI-analyzed and human-reviewed, and they will sometimes be wrong — the honest version of this work is publishing the reasoning so you can disagree with it in specifics rather than in vibes. Color convention, for the record: safety is blue, danger ramps warm. There is no green on this site, because “green = go relax” is exactly the kind of false comfort this index exists to replace.